Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record17-9-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Upstate Karate
What's at stake
Gilbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Stephen Thompson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
If they win+18→ 1720
If they lose-14→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsStephen Thompson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gilbert Burns70%
Stephen Thompson 30%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 70% favorite over Stephen Thompson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Gilbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1702, a 42-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Thompson 53%.
Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson share 1 common opponent: Belal Muhammad.
Stephen Thompson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.