Gilbert Burns vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record19-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Burns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1757
If they lose-11→ 1733
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1777 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert BurnsTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gilbert Burns64%
Tyron Woodley 36%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Burns a 64% favorite over Tyron Woodley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tyron Woodley's way (46%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1744, a 30-point edge.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gilbert Burns finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Gilbert Burns and Tyron Woodley share 2 common opponents: Stephen Thompson and Kamaru Usman.
Tyron Woodley carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.