Combat Edge Intelligence

Gilbert Melendez vs Jeremy Stephens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-8-0Record29-23-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
73,0"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Skrap PackTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Gilbert Melendez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gilbert MelendezNow 1740
If they win+6→ 1746
If they lose-18→ 1722
Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+18→ 1569
If they lose-6→ 1545

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
33%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
63%
Strike defense
59%
1.64
Takedown avg.
1.11
41%
Takedown accuracy
38%
72%
Takedown defense
62%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Gilbert MelendezJeremy Stephens
160017002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (55%)
KO/TKO
19 (66%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (7%)
10 (45%)
Decision
8 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Melendez72%
Jeremy Stephens 28%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Melendez a 72% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Gilbert Melendez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1551, a 189-point edge.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Melendez finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.

Gilbert Melendez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.