Gilbert Rael vs Italo Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-3-0Record0-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"HeightTBD
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team
What's at stake
Italo Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Rael carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1458
If they lose-23→ 1410
If they win+23→ 1475
If they lose-25→ 1427
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert RaelItalo Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Italo Diaz59%
Gilbert Rael 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Italo Diaz a 59% favorite over Gilbert Rael in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Italo Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1452 to 1433, a 19-point edge.
Gilbert Rael enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Italo Diaz enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.