Gilbert Rael vs Luan Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-3-0Record14-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
TBDTeamTata Fight Team
What's at stake
Luan Duarte is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Rael carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1459
If they lose-22→ 1411
If they win+15→ 1474
If they lose-17→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gilbert RaelLuan Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Duarte84%
Gilbert Rael 16%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Duarte a 84% favorite over Gilbert Rael in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Luan Duarte holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1433, a 26-point edge.
Gilbert Rael enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luan Duarte 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.