Combat Edge Intelligence

Gina Carano vs Megan Anderson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Gina Carano
us

Gina Carano

“Conviction”

7-2-0FeatherweightMVP

1596Solid

Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record10-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
66"Reach72,0"
143 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGlory MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

Megan Anderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Gina Carano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gina CaranoNow 1596
If they win+26→ 1622
If they lose-22→ 1574
Megan AndersonNow 1629
If they win+14→ 1643
If they lose-18→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.50
Sig. strikes / min
1.76
47%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.35
65%
Strike defense
37%
1.24
Takedown avg.
0.52
67%
Takedown accuracy
25%
86%
Takedown defense
54%
1.55
Submission avg.
0.52

Trajectory

Gina CaranoMegan Anderson
1600165020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
1 (14%)
Submission
3 (30%)
3 (43%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Megan Anderson70%
Gina Carano 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Megan Anderson a 70% favorite over Gina Carano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Megan Anderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1596, a 33-point edge.

Gina Carano enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gina Carano finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Megan Anderson 90%.

Megan Anderson carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.