Gina Carano vs Sara Collins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-2-0Record6-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
66"Reach68"
143 lbsWeight145 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamResilience Training Centre
What's at stake
Sara Collins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Gina Carano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1622
If they lose-22→ 1574
If they win+22→ 1651
If they lose-26→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gina CaranoSara Collins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sara Collins66%
Gina Carano 34%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Sara Collins a 66% favorite over Gina Carano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Sara Collins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1596, a 33-point edge.
Gina Carano enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gina Carano finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sara Collins 50%.
Gina Carano and Sara Collins share 1 common opponent: Cris Cyborg.
Sara Collins carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.