Gino van Steenis vs Robert Watley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record16-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"Reach75"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA Vlaardingen· avg 1674 EloTeamConquest BJJ
What's at stake
Robert Watley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gino van Steenis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1627
If they lose-11→ 1595
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-21→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gino van SteenisRobert Watley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robert Watley70%
Gino van Steenis 30%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Robert Watley a 70% favorite over Gino van Steenis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Robert Watley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1606, a 104-point edge.
Gino van Steenis enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gino van Steenis finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Robert Watley 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.