Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Islam Makhachev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record28-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+19→ 1694
If they lose-5→ 1670
Islam MakhachevNow 1922
If they win+5→ 1927
If they lose-19→ 1903

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1785 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.45
32%
Strike accuracy
58%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.45
63%
Strike defense
62%
4.08
Takedown avg.
3.10
54%
Takedown accuracy
56%
92%
Takedown defense
91%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.98

Trajectory

Gleison TibauIslam Makhachev
1700180019002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
5 (18%)
15 (39%)
Submission
13 (46%)
19 (50%)
Decision
10 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Islam Makhachev92%
Gleison Tibau 8%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 92% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1675, a 247-point edge.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.