Gleison Tibau vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record29-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1679
If they lose-4→ 1655
If they win+4→ 1934
If they lose-20→ 1910
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1796 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev88%
Gleison Tibau 12%Elo baseline: 83%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 88% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1930 to 1659, a 271-point edge.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.