Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Jamie Varner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record21-11-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jamie Varner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+10→ 1685
If they lose-14→ 1661
Jamie VarnerNow 1603
If they win+14→ 1617
If they lose-10→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.92
32%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
63%
Strike defense
59%
4.08
Takedown avg.
3.49
54%
Takedown accuracy
54%
92%
Takedown defense
67%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Gleison TibauJamie Varner
160016501700201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
15 (39%)
Submission
9 (43%)
19 (50%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau53%
Jamie Varner 47%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 53% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1603, a 72-point edge.

Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.