Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Jared Gordon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record21-9-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71,0"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gleison TibauNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667
Jared GordonNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
5.64
32%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
63%
Strike defense
56%
4.08
Takedown avg.
1.78
54%
Takedown accuracy
33%
92%
Takedown defense
60%
0.83
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gleison TibauJared Gordon
170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
15 (39%)
Submission
2 (10%)
19 (50%)
Decision
11 (52%)

Combat Edge model read

Jared Gordon70%
Gleison Tibau 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jared Gordon a 70% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1678), separated by just 1 points.

Jared Gordon enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jared Gordon 48%.

Gleison Tibau carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.