Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Jeremy Stephens

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record29-23-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71,0"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAlliance MMA

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+8→ 1683
If they lose-16→ 1659
Jeremy StephensNow 1551
If they win+16→ 1567
If they lose-8→ 1543

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
32%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
63%
Strike defense
59%
4.08
Takedown avg.
1.11
54%
Takedown accuracy
38%
92%
Takedown defense
62%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Gleison TibauJeremy Stephens
155016001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
19 (66%)
15 (39%)
Submission
2 (7%)
19 (50%)
Decision
8 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau60%
Jeremy Stephens 40%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 60% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1551, a 124-point edge.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.