Gleison Tibau vs Jeremy Stephens
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record29-23-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"Reach71"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Jeremy Stephens carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1643
If they win+16→ 1569
If they lose-8→ 1545
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauJeremy Stephens
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau73%
Jeremy Stephens 27%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 73% favorite over Jeremy Stephens in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1553, a 106-point edge.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Jeremy Stephens 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.