Gleison Tibau vs Joe Stevenson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record33-16-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai
What's at stake
Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Stevenson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauJoe Stevenson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau60%
Joe Stevenson 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 60% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1612, a 47-point edge.
Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.