Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Joe Stevenson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record33-16-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamJoe Stevenson's Cobra Kai

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Joe Stevenson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+10→ 1685
If they lose-14→ 1661
Joe StevensonNow 1615
If they win+14→ 1629
If they lose-10→ 1605

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.05
32%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
63%
Strike defense
61%
4.08
Takedown avg.
2.75
54%
Takedown accuracy
45%
92%
Takedown defense
40%
0.83
Submission avg.
2.20

Trajectory

Gleison TibauJoe Stevenson
160016501700201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
9 (27%)
15 (39%)
Submission
13 (39%)
19 (50%)
Decision
11 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau60%
Joe Stevenson 40%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 60% favorite over Joe Stevenson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1615, a 60-point edge.

Joe Stevenson enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Joe Stevenson 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.