Gleison Tibau vs Josh Neer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-19-0Record36-16-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Josh Neer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1686
If they lose-13→ 1662
If they win+13→ 1661
If they lose-11→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauJosh Neer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau56%
Josh Neer 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 56% favorite over Josh Neer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1648, a 27-point edge.
Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Josh Neer 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.