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Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

40-20-0Record29-0-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1659
If they win+19→ 1678
If they lose-5→ 1654
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1889
If they win+5→ 1894
If they lose-19→ 1870

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
32%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
63%
Strike defense
65%
4.08
Takedown avg.
5.32
54%
Takedown accuracy
48%
92%
Takedown defense
85%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Gleison TibauKhabib Nurmagomedov
170018001900201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (10%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
16 (40%)
Submission
11 (38%)
20 (50%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov84%
Gleison Tibau 16%Elo baseline: 79%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 84% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1889 to 1659, a 230-point edge.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.