Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Kurt Pellegrino

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record16-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPellegrino MMA

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kurt Pellegrino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+10→ 1685
If they lose-14→ 1661
Kurt PellegrinoNow 1619
If they win+19→ 1638
If they lose-13→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.45
32%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.94
63%
Strike defense
63%
4.08
Takedown avg.
2.90
54%
Takedown accuracy
55%
92%
Takedown defense
69%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Gleison TibauKurt Pellegrino
160016501700201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
15 (39%)
Submission
10 (63%)
19 (50%)
Decision
4 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau61%
Kurt Pellegrino 39%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 61% favorite over Kurt Pellegrino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1619, a 56-point edge.

Kurt Pellegrino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Pellegrino 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.