Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Marcin Held

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record29-10-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71,0"Reach39,5"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAnkos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gleison TibauNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667
Marcin HeldNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
32%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.02
63%
Strike defense
47%
4.08
Takedown avg.
2.46
54%
Takedown accuracy
47%
92%
Takedown defense
38%
0.83
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Gleison TibauMarcin Held
170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
15 (39%)
Submission
15 (52%)
19 (50%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcin Held70%
Gleison Tibau 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Held a 70% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1679), separated by just 0 points.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Held 66%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.