Gleison Tibau vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record32-22-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Melvin Guillard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1666
If they lose-17→ 1642
If they win+17→ 1526
If they lose-7→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau93%
Melvin Guillard 7%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 93% favorite over Melvin Guillard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1509, a 150-point edge.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.