Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record24-20-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+10→ 1685
If they lose-14→ 1661
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
32%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
63%
Strike defense
59%
4.08
Takedown avg.
0.58
54%
Takedown accuracy
39%
92%
Takedown defense
81%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Gleison TibauMichael Johnson
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
15 (39%)
Submission
2 (8%)
19 (50%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson64%
Gleison Tibau 36%Elo baseline: 41%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 64% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (41%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1613, a 62-point edge.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Michael Johnson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.