Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Nick Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record26-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71,0"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+15→ 1690
If they lose-9→ 1666
Nick DiazNow 1759
If they win+9→ 1768
If they lose-15→ 1744

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
5.71
32%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.84
63%
Strike defense
60%
4.08
Takedown avg.
1.28
54%
Takedown accuracy
33%
92%
Takedown defense
60%
0.83
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Gleison TibauNick Diaz
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
13 (50%)
15 (39%)
Submission
8 (31%)
19 (50%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Diaz78%
Gleison Tibau 22%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 78% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1675, a 84-point edge.

Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.

Nick Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.