Gleison Tibau vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record26-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-8→ 1651
If they win+8→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nick Diaz65%
Gleison Tibau 35%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Nick Diaz a 65% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1659, a 107-point edge.
Nick Diaz enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Nick Diaz carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.