Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael dos Anjos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRDA Academy

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+13→ 1688
If they lose-11→ 1664
Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
32%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
63%
Strike defense
60%
4.08
Takedown avg.
1.95
54%
Takedown accuracy
36%
92%
Takedown defense
55%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Gleison TibauRafael dos Anjos
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
5 (16%)
15 (39%)
Submission
11 (34%)
19 (50%)
Decision
16 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael dos Anjos70%
Gleison Tibau 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 70% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1675, a 38-point edge.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.