Gleison Tibau vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record32-18-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gleison Tibau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1672
If they lose-11→ 1648
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael dos Anjos54%
Gleison Tibau 46%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael dos Anjos a 54% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1659, a 39-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.