Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello Oliveira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record17-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAMA Fight Club

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+9→ 1684
If they lose-15→ 1660
Rafaello OliveiraNow 1601
If they win+19→ 1620
If they lose-13→ 1588

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1583 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
32%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.38
63%
Strike defense
59%
4.08
Takedown avg.
2.49
54%
Takedown accuracy
37%
92%
Takedown defense
11%
0.83
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Gleison TibauRafaello Oliveira
1600165017002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
4 (27%)
15 (39%)
Submission
5 (33%)
19 (50%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau64%
Rafaello Oliveira 36%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 64% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1601, a 74-point edge.

Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.