Gleison Tibau vs Rafaello Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
40-20-0Record17-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAMA Fight Club
What's at stake
Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rafaello Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
If they win+19→ 1617
If they lose-13→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gleison TibauRafaello Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gleison Tibau80%
Rafaello Oliveira 20%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 80% favorite over Rafaello Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1598, a 61-point edge.
Rafaello Oliveira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rafaello Oliveira 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.