Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Terry Etim

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record16-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'1"
71,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Kaobon

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Terry Etim carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+9→ 1684
If they lose-15→ 1660
Terry EtimNow 1597
If they win+20→ 1617
If they lose-12→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.16
32%
Strike accuracy
36%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.53
63%
Strike defense
67%
4.08
Takedown avg.
0.43
54%
Takedown accuracy
30%
92%
Takedown defense
39%
0.83
Submission avg.
1.42

Trajectory

Gleison TibauTerry Etim
1600165017002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
2 (13%)
15 (39%)
Submission
12 (75%)
19 (50%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Gleison Tibau54%
Terry Etim 46%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Gleison Tibau a 54% favorite over Terry Etim in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1597, a 78-point edge.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Terry Etim 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.