Combat Edge Intelligence

Gleison Tibau vs Tony Ferguson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

38-19-0Record25-11-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
71,0"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA

What's at stake

Gleison Tibau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Tony Ferguson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gleison TibauNow 1675
If they win+11→ 1686
If they lose-13→ 1662
Tony FergusonNow 1659
If they win+13→ 1672
If they lose-11→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1622 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
4.91
32%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.37
63%
Strike defense
55%
4.08
Takedown avg.
0.39
54%
Takedown accuracy
35%
92%
Takedown defense
66%
0.83
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Gleison TibauTony Ferguson
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

4 (11%)
KO/TKO
12 (48%)
15 (39%)
Submission
8 (32%)
19 (50%)
Decision
5 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Tony Ferguson57%
Gleison Tibau 43%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 57% favorite over Gleison Tibau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gleison Tibau's way (48%).

Gleison Tibau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1659, a 16-point edge.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.

Gleison Tibau finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.

Tony Ferguson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.