Grant Dawson vs Joe Solecki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record13-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGym-O
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Joe Solecki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786
If they win+22→ 1689
If they lose-10→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonJoe Solecki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson84%
Joe Solecki 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 84% favorite over Joe Solecki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1667, a 135-point edge.
Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Joe Solecki 69%.
Grant Dawson and Joe Solecki share 1 common opponent: Jared Gordon.
Grant Dawson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.