Grant Dawson vs King Green
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record36-17-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach71″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPinnacle MMA
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1811
If they lose-15→ 1787
If they win+15→ 1738
If they lose-9→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1695 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonKing Green
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson71%
King Green 29%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 71% favorite over King Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1723, a 79-point edge.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, King Green 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.