Grant Dawson vs Leonardo Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record18-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height6'0"
72"Reach75"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786
If they win+21→ 1699
If they lose-11→ 1667
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonLeonardo Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson88%
Leonardo Santos 12%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 88% favorite over Leonardo Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1678, a 124-point edge.
Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Leonardo Santos 71%.
Grant Dawson and Leonardo Santos share 1 common opponent: Jared Gordon.
Leonardo Santos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.