Grant Dawson vs Mark Madsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-1Record12-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Mark Madsen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786
If they win+21→ 1718
If they lose-11→ 1686
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Grant DawsonMark Madsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson84%
Mark Madsen 16%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 84% favorite over Mark Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1697, a 105-point edge.
Mark Madsen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mark Madsen 50%.
Grant Dawson and Mark Madsen share 1 common opponent: Jared Gordon.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.