Combat Edge Intelligence

Grant Dawson vs Michael Trizano

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-3-1Record10-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight148 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann

What's at stake

Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Michael Trizano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+8→ 1810
If they lose-16→ 1786
Michael TrizanoNow 1666
If they win+22→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1656

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.63
51%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.40
45%
Strike defense
51%
3.58
Takedown avg.
0.36
0%
Takedown accuracy
67%
67%
Takedown defense
73%
1.36
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

Grant DawsonMichael Trizano
165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (21%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
14 (58%)
Submission
2 (20%)
5 (21%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson84%
Michael Trizano 16%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 84% favorite over Michael Trizano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1666, a 136-point edge.

Grant Dawson finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Michael Trizano 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.