Grant Neal vs Rafael Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record13-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Genesis Training AcademyTeamTeam Nogueira· 1595 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Grant NealRafael Cavalcante
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Cavalcante53%
Grant Neal 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Cavalcante a 53% favorite over Grant Neal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Grant Neal's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1631), separated by just 0 points.
Grant Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Grant Neal finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Cavalcante 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.