Gray Maynard vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-1Record21-14-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
70,0"Reach76"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gray Maynard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1637
If they lose-13→ 1605
If they win+10→ 1684
If they lose-14→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gray MaynardNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz70%
Gray Maynard 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 70% favorite over Gray Maynard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1618, a 56-point edge.
Gray Maynard finishes 15% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.