Gray Maynard vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-7-1Record30-12-2
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Nik Lentz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gray Maynard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1636
If they lose-14→ 1604
If they win+10→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gray MaynardNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Lentz67%
Gray Maynard 33%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 67% favorite over Gray Maynard in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Nik Lentz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1618, a 52-point edge.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gray Maynard finishes 15% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.