Greg Hardy vs Serghei Spivac
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-6-0Record18-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'3"
80"Reach 78"
266 lbsWeight256 lbs
What's at stake
Serghei Spivac is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Greg Hardy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1643
If they lose-12→ 1611
If they win+12→ 1721
If they lose-20→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Greg HardySerghei Spivac
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac74%
Greg Hardy 26%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 74% favorite over Greg Hardy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Serghei Spivac holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1623, a 86-point edge.
Greg Hardy finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Greg Hardy and Serghei Spivac share 1 common opponent: Marcin Tybura.
Greg Hardy carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.