Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'1"
80"Reach74"
266 lbsWeight265 lbs
Skills Sport & FitnessTeamRegiment Training Center
What's at stake
Greg Hardy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Yorgan De Castro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1619
If they lose-17→ 1587
If they win+17→ 1599
If they lose-15→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Greg HardyYorgan De Castro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Greg Hardy66%
Yorgan De Castro 34%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Greg Hardy a 66% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Greg Hardy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1604 to 1582, a 22-point edge.
Greg Hardy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Greg Hardy finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.
Greg Hardy carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.