Gregor Gillespie vs Jason Gonzalez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-1-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'2"
71,0"Reach74,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Gregor Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason Gonzalez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1782
If they lose-22→ 1750
If they win+22→ 1661
If they lose-10→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Gregor GillespieJason Gonzalez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gregor Gillespie76%
Jason Gonzalez 24%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Gregor Gillespie a 76% favorite over Jason Gonzalez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Gregor Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1772 to 1639, a 133-point edge.
Jason Gonzalez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gregor Gillespie finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jason Gonzalez 100%.
Jason Gonzalez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.