Combat Edge Intelligence

Gregor Gillespie vs Jordan Rinaldi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-1-0Record14-7-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71,0"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bellmore Kickboxing AcademyTeamOne Kick's Gym

What's at stake

Gregor Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jordan Rinaldi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gregor GillespieNow 1772
If they win+9→ 1781
If they lose-23→ 1749
Jordan RinaldiNow 1616
If they win+23→ 1639
If they lose-9→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.74
Sig. strikes / min
1.56
53%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
58%
Strike defense
59%
6.86
Takedown avg.
1.45
48%
Takedown accuracy
36%
100%
Takedown defense
20%
0.76
Submission avg.
1.16

Trajectory

Gregor GillespieJordan Rinaldi
160016501700175020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
5 (36%)
Submission
8 (57%)
2 (14%)
Decision
5 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Gregor Gillespie83%
Jordan Rinaldi 17%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Gregor Gillespie a 83% favorite over Jordan Rinaldi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Gregor Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1772 to 1616, a 156-point edge.

Gregor Gillespie finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jordan Rinaldi 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.