Combat Edge Intelligence

Guido Cannetti vs Mario Bautista

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-8-0Record18-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Our Town MMATeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Guido Cannetti carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Guido CannettiNow 1517
If they win+26→ 1543
If they lose-6→ 1511
Mario BautistaNow 1790
If they win+6→ 1796
If they lose-26→ 1764

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.44
Sig. strikes / min
5.30
55%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.98
51%
Strike defense
55%
2.27
Takedown avg.
1.91
55%
Takedown accuracy
38%
65%
Takedown defense
56%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Guido CannettiMario Bautista
15001600170018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
3 (17%)
4 (40%)
Submission
7 (39%)
2 (20%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Bautista92%
Guido Cannetti 8%Elo baseline: 83%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Guido Cannetti in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (83%).

Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1517, a 273-point edge.

Guido Cannetti enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Guido Cannetti finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.