Combat Edge Intelligence

Guilherme Uriel vs Justin McCully

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record11-5-2
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
233 lbsWeight235 lbs
Evolution Combat MMATeamTeam Punishment

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Guilherme UrielNow 1603
If they win+24→ 1627
If they lose-24→ 1579
Justin McCullyNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1511 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.58
TBD
Strike accuracy
38%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.02
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.28
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
44%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Guilherme UrielJustin McCully
1550160020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
3 (43%)
Submission
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Guilherme Uriel70%
Justin McCully 30%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Guilherme Uriel a 70% favorite over Justin McCully in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1603 vs 1599), separated by just 4 points.

Justin McCully enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Guilherme Uriel finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin McCully 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.