Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Kevin Holland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record29-15-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'3"
72"Reach81"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
MjolnirTeamPhalanx MMA Academy

What's at stake

Kevin Holland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+17→ 1726
If they lose-15→ 1694
Kevin HollandNow 1736
If they win+11→ 1747
If they lose-13→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
4.24
61%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
49%
Strike defense
50%
2
Takedown avg.
0.79
52%
Takedown accuracy
0%
68%
Takedown defense
58%
1
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonKevin Holland
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
14 (48%)
13 (68%)
Submission
9 (31%)
2 (11%)
Decision
6 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Holland63%
Gunnar Nelson 37%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 63% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Kevin Holland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1709, a 27-point edge.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.

Kevin Holland carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.