Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Kevin Lee

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kevin Lee
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Kevin Lee

“The Motown Phenom”

20-9-0WelterweightPFL

1711Good

Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record20-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
72"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1710
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-16→ 1694
Kevin LeeNow 1711
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
61%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.60
49%
Strike defense
50%
2
Takedown avg.
3.18
52%
Takedown accuracy
43%
68%
Takedown defense
75%
1
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonKevin Lee
170020242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
3 (15%)
13 (68%)
Submission
9 (45%)
2 (11%)
Decision
8 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Lee60%
Gunnar Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 60% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1710 vs 1711), separated by just 1 points.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.

Kevin Lee carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.