Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Leon Edwards

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record22-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+20→ 1729
If they lose-12→ 1697
Leon EdwardsNow 1796
If they win+9→ 1805
If they lose-15→ 1781

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1780 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.62
61%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
49%
Strike defense
53%
2
Takedown avg.
1.18
52%
Takedown accuracy
36%
68%
Takedown defense
64%
1
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonLeon Edwards
170017501800185020242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
13 (68%)
Submission
3 (14%)
2 (11%)
Decision
12 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Leon Edwards71%
Gunnar Nelson 29%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 71% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1709, a 87-point edge.

Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Leon Edwards 45%.

Leon Edwards carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.