Gunnar Nelson vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-6-1Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1728
If they lose-14→ 1696
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gunnar NelsonRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson65%
Rick Story 35%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 65% favorite over Rick Story in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rick Story's way (45%).
Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1710, a 34-point edge.
Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.