Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Rick Story

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Rick Story
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Rick Story

“The Horror”

21-10-0WelterweightPFL

1744Good

Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Rick Story is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gunnar Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+18→ 1727
If they lose-14→ 1695
Rick StoryNow 1744
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
3.80
61%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
49%
Strike defense
63%
2
Takedown avg.
2.53
52%
Takedown accuracy
48%
68%
Takedown defense
63%
1
Submission avg.
0.89

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonRick Story
17001750201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
13 (68%)
Submission
5 (24%)
2 (11%)
Decision
12 (57%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Gunnar Nelson and Rick Story within a point of even.

Rick Story holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1709, a 35-point edge.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.