Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record15-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
MjolnirTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Takashi Sato carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+10→ 1719
If they lose-22→ 1687
Takashi SatoNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-8→ 1571

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.21
61%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.73
49%
Strike defense
44%
2
Takedown avg.
0.76
52%
Takedown accuracy
38%
68%
Takedown defense
61%
1
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonTakashi Sato
160016501700202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
13 (68%)
Submission
2 (13%)
2 (11%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Gunnar Nelson72%
Takashi Sato 28%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 72% favorite over Takashi Sato in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1579, a 130-point edge.

Takashi Sato enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Takashi Sato 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.