Combat Edge Intelligence

Gunnar Nelson vs Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-1Record15-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
MjolnirTeamAlfa Profi

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693
Zhakshylyk MyrzabekovNow 1709
If they win+16→ 1725
If they lose-16→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.77
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
61%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
49%
Strike defense
TBD
2
Takedown avg.
TBD
52%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
68%
Takedown defense
TBD
1
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Gunnar NelsonZhakshylyk Myrzabekov
1650170020242025

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
13 (68%)
Submission
2 (13%)
2 (11%)
Decision
7 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov70%
Gunnar Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov a 70% favorite over Gunnar Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gunnar Nelson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1709 vs 1709), separated by just 0 points.

Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Gunnar Nelson finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Zhakshylyk Myrzabekov 53%.

Gunnar Nelson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.