Combat Edge Model · Full card

ACA 206: Vakhaev vs Aliakbari predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on ACA 206: Vakhaev vs Aliakbari (August 15, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

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13Total bouts

13Frozen forecasts

3Close matchups

2Model / Elo splits

2Strong model leans

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 13 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

4 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Alikhan Vakhaev16-3-0

Amir Aliakbari16-5-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Alikhan Vakhaev won

61%Alikhan Vakhaev39%Amir Aliakbari

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Middleweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Faridun Odilov22-4-2

Altynbek Mamashov20-6-1

Close matchup50/50 baselineEven call · Faridun Odilov won

50%Faridun Odilov50%Altynbek Mamashov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 51% / 49%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Osimkhon Rakhmonov17-5-0

Tomáš Deák25-15-1

Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Osimkhon Rakhmonov won

53%Osimkhon Rakhmonov47%Tomáš Deák

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 50.6% / 49.4%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Pavel Vitruk19-10-1

Mehroj Mamadshoev9-1-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Mehroj Mamadshoev won

27%Pavel Vitruk73%Mehroj Mamadshoev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

9 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Featherweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Yusup-Khadzhi Zubariev16-5-1

Jora Ayvazyan18-1-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Jora Ayvazyan won

33%Yusup-Khadzhi Zubariev67%Jora Ayvazyan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 40% / 60%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Kafiz Sakibekov12-5-0

Viskhan Kadirov17-5-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Viskhan Kadirov won

45%Kafiz Sakibekov56%Viskhan Kadirov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 44% / 56%

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Mike Graves11-2-2

Vitaly Slipenko18-9-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Vitaly Slipenko won

66%Mike Graves34%Vitaly Slipenko

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 66% / 34%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Rasul Magomedov17-5-0

Sidney Outlaw23-6-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Sidney Outlaw won

39%Rasul Magomedov61%Sidney Outlaw

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 43% / 57%

Featherweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Alikhan Suleymanov18-5-0

Denis Silva20-10-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Alikhan Suleymanov won

60%Alikhan Suleymanov40%Denis Silva

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 56% / 44%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Vener Galiev38-15-0

Felipe Froes27-12-1

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel miss · Vener Galiev won

37%Vener Galiev63%Felipe Froes

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Erivan Pereira20-3-0

Artiom Damkovsky27-18-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Erivan Pereira won

92%Erivan Pereira8%Artiom Damkovsky

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 69% / 31%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Pavel Gordeev24-7-0

Amirkhan Adaev23-7-0

Close matchup50/50 baselineEven call · Pavel Gordeev won

50% Pavel Gordeev50%Amirkhan Adaev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 47% / 53%

Featherweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Enrique Barzola23-11-2

Saifullah Dzhabrailov19-3-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Saifullah Dzhabrailov won

37%Enrique Barzola63%Saifullah Dzhabrailov

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 45% / 55%