Gustavo García vs Naoki Matsushita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-4-0Record12-16-11
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'6"
-ReachTBD
152 lbsWeight154 lbs
TeamMB3z
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1444
If they lose-23→ 1396
If they win+12→ 1445
If they lose-12→ 1421
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo GarcíaNaoki Matsushita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo García55%
Naoki Matsushita 45%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo García a 55% favorite over Naoki Matsushita in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Naoki Matsushita's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1419 vs 1433), separated by just 14 points.
Naoki Matsushita 42%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.