Gustavo García vs Sam Watford
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-4-0Record4-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'10"
-Reach78,0"
152 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1443
If they lose-24→ 1395
If they win+16→ 1437
If they lose-16→ 1405
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo GarcíaSam Watford
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo García53%
Sam Watford 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo García a 53% favorite over Sam Watford in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sam Watford's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1419 vs 1421), separated by just 2 points.
Sam Watford enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sam Watford 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.