Combat Edge Intelligence

Gustavo Lopez vs Merab Dvalishvili

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-8-1Record21-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'6"
67"Reach 68"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team

What's at stake

Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Gustavo Lopez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Gustavo LopezNow 1635
If they win+18→ 1653
If they lose-6→ 1629
Merab DvalishviliNow 1843
If they win+6→ 1849
If they lose-18→ 1825

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1789 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
5.97
TBD
Takedown accuracy
5%
TBD
Takedown defense
76%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Gustavo LopezMerab Dvalishvili
160017001800202320242025

Win method breakdown

7 (44%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
8 (50%)
Submission
2 (10%)
1 (6%)
Decision
16 (76%)

Combat Edge model read

Merab Dvalishvili92%
Gustavo Lopez 8%Elo baseline: 77%

The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 92% favorite over Gustavo Lopez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).

Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1635, a 208-point edge.

Gustavo Lopez enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Gustavo Lopez finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Merab Dvalishvili 24%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.