Gustavo Oliveira vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Fight LesteTeamFreelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1705
If they lose-16→ 1673
If they win+16→ 1705
If they lose-16→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Gustavo OliveiraRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinya Nakamura53%
Gustavo Oliveira 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 53% favorite over Gustavo Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gustavo Oliveira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1689 vs 1689), separated by just 0 points.
Gustavo Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gustavo Oliveira finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Gustavo Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.