Hafeni Nafuka vs Matt Sayles
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
-Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight FusionTeamAlliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Hafeni NafukaMatt Sayles
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Hafeni Nafuka60%
Matt Sayles 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Hafeni Nafuka a 60% favorite over Matt Sayles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.
Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Hafeni Nafuka finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Matt Sayles 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.